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The warning comes following the publication of the Construction Products Association (CPA) Spring 2026 Forecasts.

The CPA predicts that total construction output will fall by 2.5% in 2026, with private housing output down 7.0% and private housing repair, maintenance and improvement (rm&i) down 8.0%.

Public housing output is also forecast to fall by 4.0% in 2026, although public housing rm&i is expected to rise by 2.0%.

The forecasts highlight the impact of higher oil and energy prices, higher inflation, borrowing costs, weaker consumer confidence and continuing affordability pressures in the housing market.

Chris Beedel, Head of Public Affairs at the GGF, said members would not be surprised that trading conditions had toughened.

“We’re facing a number of economic headwinds. The Middle East crisis is pushing up energy prices, while higher mortgage rates, and interest rates are slowing the housing market and with it home improvement”, he said.

“People are hanging on to their savings, and the Government’s big new house building programme is still not feeding through at the volumes we expected.
“That means that construction output generally is going to fall slightly this year. There are some green shoots in the next couple of years, but the short term, particularly the second half of this year, we’re going to have to overcome some challenges."

The GGF said that based on the CPAs forecasts and its own analysis, the private home improvement market was likely to remain under pressure for much of 2026, with households cautious about big-ticket discretionary spending.

“While the backdrop is going to be less than favourable, it’s important to remember that replacement windows and doors continue to have a strong role where homeowners are focused on energy performance, comfort, security and essential maintenance”, Chris continued.

“With the prospect of higher energy prices from July with the increase in the energy price cap, home energy efficiency should move up the agenda as we move into the autumn.”

The CPA suggests a slightly more positive outlook for social housing repair, maintenance and improvement, where output is expected to rise by 2.0% in 2026, 2027 and 2028.

This reflects the growing focus on existing social housing stock, including repairs, damp and mould, fire safety, cladding remediation, decarbonisation and energy efficiency.

Chris added that the glass and glazing sector was not immune from the wider economy but had a degree of resilience because it had built a broad market rather than relying solely on government schemes.

He said the GGF would continue to press government on practical support for the sector, including fair treatment of replacement windows and doors within energy-efficiency policy, and action to support growth, employment and investment in UK manufacturing.

"Our industry provides products that save energy, improve homes and support skilled jobs.

“The immediate outlook is difficult, but we will keep making the case for policies that help homeowners invest, support UK manufacturers and give businesses confidence", he concluded.

For more information about the GGF and how it can support your business’ growth, please visit or call 0207 939 9100.